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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1139 PM MDT sun Jul 5 2015

06z taf cycle
flow of moisture continues over New Mexico as winds aloft trend
towards southwest to westerly. Widely scattered convection to continue
with generally brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities along with occasional Montana
obscuration. Surface Lee trough will shift eastward after 06z with wind shift
into NE nm. This boundary will sag farther into the plains after
06/15z...eventually focusing thunderstorms along the east slopes of the
central Montana chain and NE/east Central Plains with areas MVFR
ceilings/visibilities after 06/23z.


Previous discussion...924 PM MDT sun Jul 5 2015...
cancelled Flash Flood Watch for today early as much of the
activity has decreased in intensity. Adjusted probability of precipitation for the
remainder of the night based on current activity and latest hrrr

Back door cold front...weak upper level wave...abundant moisture
and instability should result in heavy rain producing storms
on Monday across NE/ec nm. Very little storm motion exists...but
in general...storms should move from west to east...which would
parallel the boundary. This may mean slow
heavy rain producing storms along the front. Low level upslope
flow on the east slopes of the sangres will also aid in
thunderstorm development over the already saturated grounds in
the mountains in other words...expected a very busy day. Updates
already out.



Previous discussion...357 PM MDT sun Jul 5 2015...
potential still exists for locally very heavy rain with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this evening as deep
rich moisture continues to slowly stream into much of west and
central New Mexico...especially to the south of Interstate 40.
While a bit less likely than what appeared to be the case earlier
today...the risk of localized flash flooding should linger well
into the evening across this latter area. Then on Monday a backdoor
front is prognosticated to head into the northeast third or so of the
state and push Monday night south and west...making it at least
close to The Divide by which will recharge moisture over the
area late Monday night into Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall through
Tuesday with the greater risk shift more toward the northeast
third to half of the state later Monday and Monday night then back
farther west and south Tuesday. High temperatures will generally
slightly to moderately below normal through middle week due to the
additional clouds and rain cooling...then trend back up to near
normal by late week and into next weekend as high pressure
strengthens over the area.


well...a nice curve Ball thrown at US by Massachusetts nature rendered
roughly the northwest quarter to nearly third of the state totally
devoid of significant convection...despite vigorous convection
having developed across a good part of Arizona. Decided to trim the
northernmost counties of the Flash Flood Watch back out of the
watch...while keeping it going elsewhere. Despite the abundant
moisture and approaching short wave from Southeast appears in
part that the 2 mesoscale convective vortex/S that were approaching from the SW ahead of
the short wave largely dissipated and the storm steering flow to
west and northwest of abq has become more westerly which may imply weak
ridging that has developed there. Hrrr model still develops pretty
good amount of convection to west of middle Rio Grande Valley toward 00z
and moves it into the jemez while the nam12 keeps decent
convection going well into the evening generally a bit farther south.
So somewhat mixed signals noted.

Monday to Tuesday period still looking quite active...especially
along/east of the Central Mountain chain Monday and from Highlands
just east of Central Mountain chain on west to The Divide due largely
to added moisture and upslope flow behind a backdoor front which
will push through the Central Mountain chain Monday night...resulting
in moderate to locally strong East Canyon/gap winds. Kept the
mention of locally heavy rain already in weather grids through
Monday...though expanded east somewhat for tonight in the earlier
update. With a more stable atmosphere across the eastern plains
Tuesday...probability of precipitation reduced a bit. But central portions of the area
all the way to The Divide should see improved chances along with
what still looks to be decent directional shear helping to sustain
updrafts. High temperatures on Tuesday will be well below normal
east and below normal elsewhere.

Ridging in the middle levels of the atmosphere still indicated
for Wednesday...but plenty of moisture and heating for another round of
storms...but somewhat less coverage compared to early week. For
late week into Sat the GFS still bullish for a decent but somewhat
narrower monsoonal moisture plume across a good portion of central
and west nm...maintaining decent to very good chances for storms
going with highs generally remaining near to a little below
normal. European model (ecmwf) moving a little closer to GFS solution but still
expands upper high into the state sooner than the GFS.



Fire weather...
very moist and unstable conditions with below normal temperatures
will hold strong over the region through Wednesday. A possible
downtrend in storm coverage and uptick in maximum temperatures may then
arrive for late week.

Scattered storms this afternoon moving northeast over the area will
focus heavier rainfall between the Continental Divide and the Rio
Grande Valley overnight. A moderately strong wind shift will arrive
from the northeast Monday morning and slide southwest into the Rio
Grande Valley Monday night. This front will usher another surge of
low level moisture into the area and refocus more locally heavy
rainfall from The Divide east into the plains through Wednesday. The
heaviest accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be along the eastern
slopes of the sangres/sandias and Manzano mts. Gusty canyon winds
are likely as well however peak speeds will also be regulated by
convective coverage. Low to moderate Haines and generally good or
better vent rates will dominate this period.

The upper high center will then attempt to slowly drift west and
begin a warming and slight drying trend. The main axis of storm
coverage is expected to shrink and focus more into western nm from
Thursday through the weekend. Min relative humidity values will trend back into the
20s and low 30s while maximum temperatures rise back above normal.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
for the following zones... nmz512>515-523-527>535.



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