Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
552 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2015
00z taf cycle
northwest winds will quickly diminish around sunset. A potent back door
front will slide down the eastern plains overnight into early Sunday
morning. Strong north winds of 20 to 30kt with gusts near 45 knots will
be possible across NE nm...especially between 09z and 18z Sunday. The
backdoor front will result in isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Sunday...mainly along the east slopes of the Central
Mountain chain including klvs.
Previous discussion...330 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2015...
a sprawling and slow moving low pressure system will exit Colorado
tonight...with cool and breezy to windy weather for Sunday along
with lingering showers. A series of disturbances with weak cold
fronts will pass over the state through Wednesday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day. High temperatures will slowly
warm into midweek. An unsettled weather pattern will persist through
the end of next week.
lumbering and gi-normous upper low circulation still the major
feature for northern and central nm in the short term. The center of
the low is anticipated to be located over eastern Colorado/western Kansas after
midnight...putting the focus for strong 700 mb flow over parts of the
central Montana chain and NE/east central nm. A cold front will also surge
southward...with a strong surface gradient developing by 12-15z
Sunday. Decided to go ahead and hoist a Wind Advisory for the far NE
plains as guidance suggesting wind speeds will meet criteria as
Otherwise inherited forecast grids in line with model trends. There
looks to be another disturbance impacting the northern mts/NE Sunday into
Sunday night...where models picking up on some generally sub advisory
snow accumulations over the sangre Delaware cristo mts and into mainly
Colfax County. May need to watch how this unfolds in case snow advisories
are needed. Highs Sunday remain below average for most
locales...especially the eastern plains.
Highs warm up closer to average by Wednesday. For Monday into
Wednesday...lingering moisture and northwest flow aloft usually
guarantee slight chances for convection favoring the higher
terrain...and occasional wind shifts in the plains also keep slight
potential going there. Later next week...a stronger front is
possible...but models have not been doing well with the busy weather
critical fire weather conditions may return across much of the forecast
area on Thursday and across the eastern plains on Friday.
Strong northwest winds have developed as expected across much of
central and western nm this afternoon. Expect these winds to
diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight however...a
back door front will move into the plains. By sunrise
Sunday...strong and gusty winds are expected across northeast
nm...spreading southward through the morning hours. Gusts near 45 or 50
miles per hour are possible near Clayton. Temperatures will lower a few degrees as
compared to today behind the front...thus... humidities will remain
above 20 percent. As the front backs up to the Central Mountain
chain...expect a few showers and thunderstorms to develop due to
upslope flow...mainly along the east slopes of the sangre Delaware cristo
mountains in the afternoon.
Humidity recoveries tonight will be good to excellent most areas
with near normal temperatures. High temperatures on Sunday will remain below
normal across the east thanks to the front...though will be inching
up toward normal across the west.
On Monday...shortwave ridging will develop across western
nm...though enough residual moisture will be around to see at least
some high based cumulus and virga in the afternoon hours. A few
sprinkles may actually reach the ground across the northern high
terrain...though the bigger concern may be erratic wind gusts with
any virga across western nm. Otherwise temperatures should warm to within 5
degrees of normal.
Models in better agreement this afternoon on the progression and
strength of the back door cold front Monday night and Tuesday. In
short...models have backed off considerably...and what is left is a
very weak front that just nudges into NE nm and may be enough to
spark a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. The front makes
very little...if any...progression southward Tuesday night before
retreating northward as stronger southwesterly flow develops in
advance of the next storm system.
Wednesday looks to be breezy in many areas...but the strongest winds
look to arrive on Thursday and Friday. Thus...critical fire weather
concerns will return as humidities fall below 15 percent both Thursday
and Friday. On Thursday...best potential looks to be across central and
western areas. The back door front will be reinforced across NE nm
and additional thunderstorms are expected to form there Thursday
afternoon. The next storm system weakens and moves north of the state
quickly Thursday night...but strong westerly winds should develop in
its wake on Friday. Best chances for critical conditions on Friday
is across the east Central Plains.
No ventilation issues are expected for the next 7 days...with mainly
excellent vent rates expected...though far northeast nm may drop
into the fair or good categories middle to late week.
Wind Advisory from 5 am to 4 PM MDT Sunday for the following