Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1128 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014
06z taf cycle
IFR ceilings working into the eastern plains overnight and in tafs for
tcc...row...and lvs. Ridge building northward across nm in the
wake of Odile...as surface low over northern Mexico imparts
easterly components to surface winds through the day on Saturday.
Gusts squirting through central Montana chain gaps over the Rio Grande
Valley reflected in g30kt winds at abq and saf from 01z Onward Sat
evening. Next approaching system over central California will
support some isolated showers drifting into western New Mexico and
in tafs for gup and fmn. Overnight Montana obscuration over the
northern mts and across the southern tier late Sat night.
Previous discussion...743 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014...
updated forecast to lower precipitation chances overnight. Models continue
to generate lots of quantitative precipitation forecast but satellite and radar imagery indicating
not much more than a few showers and storms remain over southeastern nm.
Interestingly...a small cluster of convection over the southern
San Juan Mountains in Colorado continues to drift swed toward
the Chama area. Left in isolated storms through the evening
along/near the Colorado border in north-central nm as a result.
Previous discussion...308 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014...
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will continue this evening and
overnight across portions of the eastern plains. Though the
daytime hours on Saturday should be mostly quiet...as moisture
moves back into the area from the south and east...shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to ramp back up again Saturday
night and Sunday. Drier air will move into the state from west to
east Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile...temperatures will remain
generally above normal across the west and below normal across the
east. By the middle of next week...storm coverage will be
dwindling...and temperatures will rebound within a few degrees of
normal area wide.
radar and observations continue to show that models are struggling
with quantitative precipitation forecast placement and amounts with the remnants of Odile. This is
mainly because Odile continues to stay south of projected tracks.
Interestingly...most operational models continue to show quantitative precipitation forecast bulls-
eyes over portions of the eastern plains through the overnight...but
the latest hrrr has taken the opposite tune...with almost no precipitation
predicted. Expect reality to be closer to the drier
scenario...though some showers should percolate overnight across the
plains...much like what is occurring now. Have also left in isolated
thunder...but not confident much of that will happen.
As Odile continues to shift eastward and lose its identity...its
pool of moisture will remain over West Texas on Saturday.
Meanwhile...the next upper low will take shape off the coast of
cali...and a weak upper high will begin to build over nm. As a
result...low to middle level flow will become easterly. Though the
daytime hours should be relatively quiet in terms of convection...as
the pool of moisture is advected westward into the plains...up slope
flow should allow for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms to
develop late in the afternoon and evening. Should also see an East Canyon
wind pick up in the Rio Grande Valley with breezy to windy
Sunday continues to trend toward more widespread precipitation as
the upper low ejects northeastward over the Great Basin and low/middle level
moisture continues to be advected into nm from the S and southeast.
Increased probability of precipitation area wide...though generally stay a bit conservative.
Westerly flow will return on Monday...generally at the base of the
trough/low moving across the central/northern rockies. Drier air will
start to move into the northwest but still a fair amount of shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected elsewhere. The trough axis will
pass Monday night...and flow will become more northwesterly. This
should temporarily halt any monsoonal moisture from moving northward.
A weak upper high will develop over nm for the middle to latter half
of the work week...though enough moisture should be around to
support a few storms. The 12z GFS and last nights European model (ecmwf) both show a
large trough moving into the western US next Friday through the
weekend. This scenario would bring up another bout of monsoonal
moisture for nm next weekend. However...the 12z European model (ecmwf) does not show
the trough as far south...thus not as much moisture advection
northward. Stay tuned.
remnants of Odile will keep high humidity and scattered showers
with wetting rain rest of the afternoon into tonight for areas east
of the Central Mountain chain. Easterly flow will return across
the eastern plains Saturday increasing low level relative humidity across the
northeast half. Drying via a middle level dry intrusion expected
elsewhere...especially western areas. The best chance of wetting
rain would be found across the southeast. Gap wind gusts ranging
from 30 to 45 miles per hour will be expected along the Rio Grande Valley
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
Residual moisture and a moderately strong upper level low to our
west will enhance wetting rain potential area wide for Sunday.
Greatest emphasis across south central and southeast areas.
Temperatures will cool 5 to 10 degrees area wide but remain near
normal across the northwestern half of the state. Easterly winds
will continue to be breezy. Ventilation rates look to be
fair to good for areas north of the Interstate 40 corridor.
Monday will still see wetting rain chances and below normal
temperatures in the east...less wetting rain potential with near
normal temperatures to the west. Ventilation not expected to change
a lot between Sunday to Monday with better readings along and north
Models remain consistent with developing a drying trend over the
area starting Tuesday although a weak frontal boundary is still
anticipated middle week and favor the east slopes of the central mountains
eastward. Ventilation is expected to lower some Tuesday/Wednesday
but not fall out of sight. Models could improve the numbers as we
get closer to that period.
The next upper trough still on tap for late week into the following
weekend. Models remain a little different in terms of timing and
strength of impacts. The GFS is much deeper and more progressive
with the trough thus some wind impacts possible ahead of it. This
impacts ventilation rates. European model (ecmwf) is a bit slower. Lower confidence
period for late week into next week at this time.