Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1048 am MST sun Nov 29 2015
18z taf cycle
widespread low clouds with patchy fog will continue across much of
eastern nm through afternoon. As an upper level trough and associated
surface cold front approach from the west late this afternoon and
evening...the low clouds will gradually dissipate from west to
east. Surface cold front will move into far western New Mexico around middle
afternoon and then move eastward through the remainder of the state this
evening and overnight. Scattered snow showers west/ areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings
will develop across the northern mountains and NE Highlands/plains
around sunset and continue until approx 06z. Strong west winds
aloft will continue in the wake of the upper trough and surface cold
front through Monday.
Previous discussion...345 am MST sun Nov 29 2015...
Look for areas of fog central and east this morning. A stubborn
storm system located over the Great Basin and central rockies will
finally move east today and tonight. There is a chance for snow
showers north central and northeast as the storm system ejects and a
cold front invades New Mexico. It will be colder tonight and Monday
night in the wake of the cold front...and westerly winds may be
gusty at times. Dry northwest flow aloft will keep high temperatures
below average through Wednesday and into Thursday. Highs will be
near to above average next Friday...ahead what could be another
storm system. Forecast models have varied markedly so confidence is
rather low how or if this system may evolve.
Current temperatures hovering near freezing from the east slopes of
the central Montana chain over the eastern plains. Will let the current
advisory ride although there may be some areas that are more fog
than freezing fog. While a couple of observation indicate light
precipitation from the fog...expect it will be a trace. Guidance
indicates some of the lower clouds in the east may be slow to break
out today but boundary layer winds suggest the clouds should erode
along and west of the Pecos Valley. Highs today still below average
for most areas...but especially the far northwest...where it will be
cooler again today...and the east...where it will be warmer overall.
Stubborn upper low over the Great Basin and central rockies to
finally eject today and tonight. This could produce some...at least
according to the models...spotty sub advisory snow amounts over the
northern high terrain and far northeast. Winds may be gusty at times
as the front works it way into the region and mountain top level
winds increase as the upper low passes to our north.
Forecast models remain dry for the work week under dry northwest
flow aloft or late in the week...a ridge of high pressure. High
temperatures will be cooler for most locales Monday...and climb
slowly towards average through the week. Friday may be the warmest
day of the week for many areas...just in time for potentially
another cool down Saturday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) have really backed off on
the storm for next weekend...but there is time for a flip flop or
Low clouds and fog continued to plague much of central and eastern
nm overnight. These clouds will again have trouble diminishing
across the east today...especially near and north of I-40...where
they will likely persist through the day and tonight. Thus...high
temperatures will again be quite chilly...generally up to 15 degrees
Meanwhile...the upper level low will start to shift east today and
one last lobe of energy will pivot around the main low center. This
energy should cross northern nm today and tonight. Models continue
to suggest some light showers across NC and NE areas this evening
and overnight. Snow accums should generally be 2 to 4 inches across
the mountains and less than that across the NE plains. In addition to the
light precipitation...should see Ridgetop winds increase somewhat as well.
As the upper level system pulls away on Monday...the middle level dry
slot will be in full force over nm. Enough dry air and mixing should
be present to finally erode the low clouds across the eastern
plains. Daytime humidities will be notably lower...and may even near
15 percent across the west Central Highlands. However...much cooler
middle level temperatures behind the departing system will result in cooler
high temperatures for much of central and western nm. Additionally...
northwest winds behind the system will result in breezy to windy
conditions... especially along the Central Mountain chain and areas
across the Central Highlands.
Another weak system will slide across nm on Tuesday night and early
Wednesday...but with the dry air in place...it will only act to
reinforce the cooler air across nm...or rather...prevent a
significant warm up.
The middle level dry air will remain a semi-permanent feature over nm
through early Friday. Temperatures should generally be within 5 degrees of
normal by Thursday...and may warm another degree or two on Friday as
southwest flow returns. The storm system next weekend does not look
nearly as strong as it did 24 hours ago...and now looks like it will
be hard to squeeze out any precipitation from it.
Ventilation will be good to excellent across many western areas
today...though across the east...poor conditions will persist with
very little mixing. The central third of the state will be more of a
mixed bag. Winds on Monday should allow for widespread fair to good
vent rates across the areas...with the exception of far western nm
which should remain poor. Poor ventilation continues to be the rule
Tuesday through Friday as well.